FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|Worried about a 2025 COLA? This is the smallest cost-of-living adjustment Social Security ever paid.

If you've been keeping tabs on FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank CenterSocial Security, you may be aware that recipients got a 3.2% boost to their benefits at the start of 2024. But given that 2023's cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, came in at 8.7%, that 3.2% raise read like a disappointment for a lot of seniors.

Meanwhile, based on inflation readings to date, 2025's Social Security COLA is looking to be smaller than 2024's. It's too soon to narrow down an exact number, since COLAs are based on third quarter inflation data. But initial projections are calling for a less generous boost in the coming year.

In fact, at one point this year, experts were predicting a 2025 Social Security COLA of just 1.75%. And while that estimate has wiggled upward since, next year's boost may leave a good number of seniors reeling. But even if that 1.75% figure ends up being accurate, it wouldn't be the smallest Social Security COLA on record — not by far.

The smallest COLA ever may shock you

In the early 1980s, when inflation was rampant, seniors were at one point eligible for a 14.3% Social Security COLA. But during the period of 2000 to 2020, COLAs were a lot smaller. And during that time, there were three separate years when Social Security's COLA amounted to 0%.

That's right. Although benefits are eligible for a COLA every year, they're not guaranteed to go up. If inflation readings are lower from one year to the next, Social Security recipients won't get a COLA.

Thankfully, Social Security benefits cannot be adjusted downward in that situation. The worst that can happen is that they won't increase from one year to the next year. But either way, even if 2025's COLA comes in at under 2%, it probably won't be the lowest raise on record by far.

Don't become too COLA-dependent

Because so many seniors today live Social Security paycheck to paycheck, many are reliant on a generous COLA to maintain their buying power from one year to the next. But that's really not a great situation to put yourself in. And you can largely avoid it by making an effort to save independently for your retirement so you have income outside of Social Security to fall back on.

Let's imagine you invest $300 a month for retirement over a 35-year period, all the while generating an average annual 8% return, which is a bit below the stock market's average. At that point, you could end up retiring with about $620,000. Make it $400 a month, and that total rises to around $827,000. In either scenario, you have a decent chunk of savings you can tap so that if there's a year when Social Security's COLA is 0%, you're not automatically out of luck or forced to skimp on necessary expenses.

Social Security's 2025 COLA won't be announced until October, so seniors will have to sit tight until then. But remember, even if next year's raise isn't so generous, it probably won't be 0%. So at least there's that.

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